Ben Watts · REA Spring Forum · 7 May 2026 ben@kilowatts.io · linkedin.com/in/kilowatts
Slides live: reaspring2026.kilowatts.io
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Word cloud, polls and live Q&A throughout. First question coming up…
Slido word cloud · answer while I get going
1. A solar MW in the UK now earns more than one in Spain — what just happened to solar economics across Europe.
2. Good or bad neighbours? Cui bono? — what GB's interconnector flows reveal about who's paying for the transition.
The thread: continental cannibalisation flows across borders, and Britain sits at the crossroads.
A British solar MW now out-earns a Spanish one — despite half the sunshine.
Spain used to earn ~2× the UK. The lines crossed in 2025.
Spain has ~2× the yield. UK has ~2× the capture price. Net winner: UK.
Sunnier countries earn less per MWh. The cannibalisation gradient runs south to north.
Spain went from ~30% of summer-peak demand in 2021 to ~100% by 2025. Britain's build was much slower.
In 2018, prices were flat (gas-led). By 2025, a deep solar trough year-round. Winter now out-earns spring for Spanish PV.
Continued Spanish capacity additions + gas-volatility tailwind for GB → the crossover is structural, not a one-off.
A solar MW in the UK now earns more than one in Spain
dispatches.kilowatts.io/p/a-solar-mw-in-the-uk-now-earns-more
Slido multiple choice · answer in 30 seconds
Hydro to the north · sun to the east · datacentres to the west · nukes to the south.
Different and unexpected trends in every direction.
A picture tells a thousand words; this animation tells a thousand pictures.
NSL = highest buy-low / sell-high spread of any GB IC. The big Nordic battery delivers.
Even Norway has bad quarters. Climate-change-induced droughts will recur — being a good neighbour back matters.
GB used to import all day from the continent. Now, in summer, we import the duck — and export at sunset.
NL/BE/DE solar dumping → cheap midday GB power, but cannibalises GB CfD strikes.
The 30-year IFA story. Only really asked GB for help once: 2022, when nuclear collapsed at the worst possible time.
Wind surplus → datacentre baseload deficit. GB CCGT often the marginal generator for Irish AI.
GB has paid more for carbon than the EU every year since 2018. ~£23/MWh added to GB CCGT SRMC at today's price.
When ICs over-earn, GB consumers get money back via reduced TNUoS. The red wedge is the rebate.
Good or bad neighbours? Cui bono (who pays)?
dispatches.kilowatts.io/p/good-or-bad-neighbours-cui-bono-who
Slido open-ended response — type your answer; live Q&A runs alongside ↓
